Camera Depreciation Is Predictable — Here Is How to Use It to Your Advantage

Every camera follows the same depreciation curve. Once you see the pattern, you can stop overpaying for new and start timing your purchases like a professional.

The depreciation curve

Camera bodies lose value in three phases. Phase one is the announcement drop: the moment a successor is announced or even credibly rumored, the current model loses 10 to 15 percent of its street value overnight. Phase two is the steady decline: over the 12 to 18 months following a new release, the previous generation settles to roughly 50 to 60 percent of its original price. Phase three is the floor: after two generations, a camera body stabilizes at 30 to 40 percent of MSRP and depreciates very slowly from there.

This curve is remarkably consistent across brands. A Canon EOS R5 that launched at $3,899 in 2020 traded around $2,200 in mid-2024 after the R5 II announcement, and settled near $1,800 by early 2026. A Sony A7R IV that launched at $3,498 in 2019 followed nearly the identical percentage curve relative to its starting price.

Lenses depreciate differently

Lenses hold value far better than bodies because optical performance doesn't become obsolete the way sensor technology does. A Canon RF 70-200mm f/2.8 purchased in 2020 retains 75 to 80 percent of its value in 2026. First-party primes hold even better — the Sony 50mm f/1.2 GM trades at roughly 85 percent of retail on the used market.

Third-party lenses depreciate faster because they compete on price and face compatibility risks with firmware updates. A Sigma Art lens that worked flawlessly at launch might develop autofocus issues after a camera firmware update, which depresses resale value. Tamron lenses follow a similar pattern, though both manufacturers have improved firmware update support significantly.

Timing your purchase

The best time to buy a camera is three to six months after its successor launches. At this point, the previous model has taken its biggest depreciation hit, supply of used units peaks as upgraders sell their old gear, and any early production issues with the new model are well documented. You get a known quantity at a steep discount.

The worst time to buy is immediately before a successor announcement. Rumors of an impending replacement are the signal to wait. Camera manufacturers follow roughly two-year product cycles for flagship bodies and three-year cycles for mid-range models. If a camera has been on the market for 18 months and rumors are circulating, patience saves money.

The cost of ownership calculation

Professional photographers should think about cameras in terms of cost per year of ownership, not purchase price. A $3,000 camera used for three years and sold for $1,500 costs $500 per year — less than a dollar fifty per day. A $1,500 used camera used for two years and sold for $800 costs $350 per year. The used option is cheaper per year, but not by as much as the sticker price suggests.

This calculation changes the math on buying new versus used. If you keep gear for four or more years, buying new at launch and riding the depreciation curve all the way down costs more per year than buying used and selling before the next generation arrives. The sweet spot for minimizing annual cost is buying one generation behind and selling after 18 to 24 months.

When depreciation doesn't matter

All of this analysis assumes you plan to resell. If you shoot a camera until it physically fails, depreciation is irrelevant — only purchase price matters, and buying used at the floor price is the obvious move. A Sony A7 III at $800 in 2026 still produces excellent 24-megapixel images with reliable autofocus. For hobbyists who don't need the latest features, the floor of the depreciation curve is where the real value lives.

The camera industry wants you on the upgrade treadmill. Understanding depreciation lets you step off it — or at least ride it strategically instead of getting pulled along.

Sources: MPB Price Trends, CIPA Shipment Data